Research points to a slight increase in industrial production, but a drop in employment and higher-than-planned inventories. The change in relation to the last months is the improvement in the expectations of industrialists
Industrial production rose in May 2023, after a downward movement that started in September 2022. In this eight-month period, there were seven declines. According to the Industrial Survey , from the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) , the production evolution index stood at 51.6 points, above the 50-point dividing line, which separates the fall from the rise in production in comparison with the month previous. 1,677 businessmen were interviewed between June 1st and 13th.
CNI economist Cláudia Perdigão explains that the increase in industrial activity was registered after a series of negative results, but the index is the lowest of the last three years for the month of May, which indicates more moderate activity in comparison with previous years .
Check out the interview with CNI economist Cláudia Perdigão about the survey:
“The data show a lack of strength in the industry, with a drop in employment and rising inventories. A positive fact is the increase in the use of installed capacity, which rose two points. Despite the advance, the percentage is lower than that registered in the last two years for the same month”, explains Cláudia Perdigão.
The index for the evolution of the number of employees stood at 48.4 points, a value that represents a drop in industrial employment from April to May 2023. The result has been below the dividing line of 50 points since October 2022.
Inventories remain above plan
The stock level evolution index was 51.3 points in May this year, as it is above the 50-point dividing line, the index points to an increase in stocks in relation to April. It is the fourth consecutive month of rising stocks.
The effective inventory level index in relation to the planned one was also at 51.3 points. The excess of unwanted inventories is practically the same as in the previous month (the index stood at 51.5 points in April).
Moderate improvement in expectations in June 2023
All expectations indices increased in June this year. With the rises, the expectation indices for the number of employees and the quantity exported, which were practically around 50 points in May, moved away and are now above the dividing line.
The demand index was 54.6 points and the raw material purchase indicator reached 52.7 points. The number of employees evolution index increased by 0.8 points, to 50.7 points, while the exported quantity index increased by 0.6 points, to 50.8 points.
Intention to invest grows
The investment intention index increased by 1.1 points, changing from 52.9 points in May to 54 points in June. Before May, the index came from a series of oscillations, alternating moderate upward and downward movements, between January and May 2023.
The rise in June completely reverses the fall in May and returns the indicator to the same level as in February 2023. This dynamic suggests caution in investment decisions by industry entrepreneurs.
By: Adriana Nicacio
Photo: Industry News Agency Industry Media Bank